Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

[Hydra009]

That's fantastic. Also, I am sure Putin doesn't want pics/vids of dead Russians getting back home.

That and hazing/abuse. Or complaining about terrible supplies. Or "walking dead" assaults (poorly equipped unit with wounded on crutches, almost zero combat ability). None of that sort of footage is good for Putin.

But it's steadily getting to the point where the Kremlin can no longer control the narrative. Russians are seeing Ukrainian drones with their own eyes, seeing Russian refineries get hit, seeing the ineffectual response from the Russian government. They can't hide that they're losing for much longer.

How things turn out for Crimea has the potential to completely shatter faith in Putin. The Ukrainians have been slowly but surely strangling logistics routes there. If they're able to keep up the pressure to the point of completely cutting supplies, the Russians will have no choice but to pull out or be wiped out. That'll be a hell of a day for Putin.

[Hydra009]

Russia actually launched two Oreshnik missiles at Kyiv, but the second one malfunctioned and hit somewhere in occupied Donetsk

According to ISW, Ukrainian open-source intelligence analysts reported that footage from May 24 appears to show Russia launching a second Oreshnik missile that later malfunctioned and hit in the occupied Donetsk region.

The footage reportedly showed six submunitions hitting the ground.

One Ukrainian OSINT source cited by ISW suggested the missile may have hit Russian military positions near occupied Avdiivka or Yasynuvata, both located roughly 40 kilometers from the front line.

“If confirmed, these reports would indicate that one of every four Oreshniks that Russian forces have used thus far in the war have malfunctioned,” ISW said.

It probably didn't hit actual Russian positions - we should be so lucky - but the fact remains that Russia produces very few Oreshniks per year and they have a large failure rate. While I have no doubt that the garage owner was very distraught about the missile slamming into it, it's not the superweapon it's portrayed as and certainly won't change the tide of the war.

[Cassia]

When a Oreshnik goes astray that's ~$50M down the drain.

[Hydra009]

Zelenskyy visits Sweden, Ukraine gets Gripen jets

Sweden to donate 16 Gripen C/D jets within 10 months. Ukraine to buy up to 20 of the newer Gripen E aircraft, which are scheduled to be delivered by 2030. Between 100 and 150 Gripen jets altogether.

I know, it sucks to have to wait, but these things take time. But when these are in the air in Ukraine, it should put a huge dent in the Russian aerial bomb threat.

It's hard to understate just how important this deal will be for Ukraine. But don't take my word for it, let's hear from a Ukrainian pilot:

"For me, the JAS-39 is the only fighter jet in the world I'd be willing to sell my soul for," Ukrainian pilot Vadym Voroshylov, call sign Karaya, wrote on Instagram last year, describing the aircraft as an "ideal option" for Ukraine.

That's a hell of an endorsement.

"One of the advantages of the Gripen over the F-16 is its ability to carry the Meteor air-to-air missile," military historian and weapons expert Andrii Kharuk told the Kyiv Independent.

Justin Bronk, senior research fellow at RUSI, said the Meteor missile could help Ukraine better counter Russian glide bomb attacks carried out by Su-34 aircraft operating behind the front line.

"Only the Meteor has a suitable effective range to threaten Su-34 aircraft launching glide bombs 60-100 kilometers (30-60 miles) behind the front line," Bronk told the Kyiv Independent.

But Ukraine wasn't the only one deepening ties with allies. Russia unveiled its own military partnership with the Taliban

The Taliban. The very people the Soviet Union invaded and brutalized from 1979 to 1989, and who beat back the Soviets so badly that its was a contributing factor to the collapse of the USSR. I guess now that they're both terrorist states with many of the same enemies, it makes sense that they'd be on the same side.

I'm not quite sure what either side plans on receiving from such ties. Doubtful it's anything high tech. Fresh meat? But Russia already has that to some degree with North Koreans and it's not particularly helping. And I very much doubt Taliban soldiers are willing to travel, especially to such a different climate. Maybe some sort of economic deal to help keep Russian finances afloat. That seems most likely, imho. I suppose we'll find out.

Ukraine gets one of the best military jets in the world from the world's 25th richest county VS Russia gets *something* from the 140th richest county (just below Syria, heh). Quite the disparity in terms of ally strength and support.

[Cassia]

Mind blowing how Russia never achieved total air superiority. Simply cannot take out Ukraine's ground-based air defenses. If they had, they would have won the war already. Too bad the gripen isn't stealth.

[Hydra009]

Mind blowing how Russia never achieved total air superiority. Simply cannot take out Ukraine's ground-based air defenses. If they had, they would have won the war already. Too bad the gripen isn't stealth.

They tried, but there was just too much AA on both sides for either to control the skies.

It's a shame NATO never closed the airspace over western Ukraine because Russian drones keep finding their way into neighboring countries. There's only so many times Russia can plausibly claim it was an accident. Just recently, a Russian drone slammed into a Romanian apartment building. No one was hurt, this time. But it's a bad idea to rely on luck alone. Europe needs to be more proactive about the Russian threat and defend their own airspace or this will keep happening and people will get hurt.

[Hydra009]

Russian state media responded to the Romanian drone strike with Putin himself playing dumb to it and pretending to not know anything about it while suggesting that it was actually the Ukrainians and then saying that the drone debris should be sent to Moscow where they'll identify it (sounds legit).

Russian state media (propagandist) Karnaukhov called for strikes on Poland and Romania, while referring to Romanians as “gypsies.”

Medvedev told Europeans to "shut up" about the Russian drone in Romania and that it's "just the beginning". He also uses weird slurs like "Euroimpotents" (I feel like he's the guy who invented "dumbocrats") and claimed the Europeans "threw a tantrum because some drone hit a residential building in Romania" like it's just something that happens like rain and not a very serious act of aggression and escalation.

These people don't say anything without Putin's approval and in fact, Putin uses these people to express his own views. This sort of rhetoric coming from the Kremlin is nothing new, in fact they regularly talk about nuking either Poland or the UK, threaten Eastern Europe with invasion, and threatens Western Europe with military confrontation if they intervene. Putin shows outright hatred towards pretty much all of Europe - with a special hatred for ex-Soviet countries - contempt for most European leaders, and considers lines on maps to be optional and open to interpretation.

When people show you who they are, believe them.

Also, Putin's statement about the war "ending soon" which many in Western media optimistically hoped was him looking for an off-ramp was actually him assuring the Russian people that there will be a Russian victory soon (he has a distorted image of the war due to the exaggerated/inaccurate reports from his military and genuinely believes that Russia's winning)

And finally, Russian telegram seeks to influence Elon Musk by starting some sort of Twitter campaign to appeal to him by showing Ukrainian strikes on Russia - especially civilians who got hurt - and saying that because those drones are controlled by Starlink, Elon Musk has some sort of moral accountability for that (I'm not sure why this same logic doesn't apply to Putin) to get him to disable Starlink for the Ukrainians too. Quite a long shot effort, but this is the last ditch effort of "Mighty" Russia which previously threatened Musk over the Starlink shutdown. Not so mighty now, huh?

[Hydra009]

The Russian logistics on the southern front continues to deteriorate (the Russian milblogger Rybar calls it "Southern Russia" which is a deliberate misnomer - he's really talking about southern Ukraine, but Russia supposedly annexed it so now it's "Russian" in his mind)

There are lots and I mean lots of videos of Russian logistics getting blasted way before they get to their intended destination. I was watching a Ukrainian drone video compilation and that was a very long video - Russian logistics getting blasted every few seconds for several minutes. Yikes.

One video with two Russian soldiers hiding under a bridge after their vehicle got blown up complaining about having to wait for evacuation. He said that three vehicles were hit in the last 30 minutes. Imagine that going on day in and day out. Imagine what that does to a war effort.

Another Russian posted on Telegram that he fears the Ukrainian drones will mine the highway and tells drivers to be vigilant, an lo and behold, the very next post on my feed was a video of Ukrainian drones doing exactly that. It's like poetry, they rhyme.

A Russian military transport driver previously suggested driving only at night because the cover of darkness might help hide them from Ukrainian drones. Well, mines throw a wrench in that plan because drivers can't see the mines at night and barely have a chance during the day. So it's a bit of a lose-lose situation. At day, you can maybe spot the mines, but you're a tempting target for Ukrainian drones. At night, you (maybe) are somewhat hidden from Ukrainian drones, but you have no chance at spotting mines in time. So you're hosed either way.

For their part, the Russians suggest turning off the radio (every trucker's worst nightmare) to be able to hear incoming drones better and also to spread out to the side roads. Not exactly a stellar countermove - but it might help a little bit. Emphasis on little bit. They still have no clue how to stop the Ukrainian drones. Everything else is just putting a bandage on a grievous wound.

My brother says that some of the Russian logistics drivers are refusing to go anywhere near the area, which struck me as odd because they were supporting genocide before no problem but now it's a problem because they might die themselves. Genocidal but not suicidal, apparently. What a strange position to stake out.

[Cassia]

Genocidal but not suicidal, apparently. What a strange position to stake out.

Ah....It's just biblical.

Deuteronomy 20:16-17, God commands the Israelites regarding the Hittites, Amorites, Canaanites, Perizzites, Hivites, and Jebusites: "However, in the cities of the nations the Lord your God is giving you as an inheritance, do not leave alive anything that breathes. Completely destroy them..."

Samuel 15:2-3, the prophet Samuel relays a command to King Saul from God: "Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys."

We are tribal creatures and two tribes will always go to war, so better have a god sanction it.

[Hydra009]

The Russians "firing at" the Ukrainian drone that hit the Russian ship Admiral Essen. Stormtrooper accuracy.